An unprecedented referendum

The Trumpapalooza is now history as the Republicans adjourned their unprecedented two-day midterm national party convention in Dallas.

The event is significant in that King Trump officially declared that midterm House and Senate races are to be viewed as a referendum on his performance from the throne since January 2025. Some Republican candidates welcomed the strategy while other candidates sought to separate themselves from the Trump brand. Democrats expressed a bit of glee with the Trump plan to hold the Republican majorities in the House and Senate. Indeed, top Democratic strategists were particularly pleased that Trump, in making the Midterm election about him, had achieved what they had hoped to design. The adage that all elections are local has been dismissed as Trump has insisted on making this election national in focus.

If Trump is to prevail in his strategy, he must convince the American voters that he has built the strongest economy ever, provided the biggest tax reduction in our nation’s history, won a war against Iran, ridded our nation of the worst of the worst noncitizens, brought manufacturing back to the US with his tariff policies and won new respect for the US on the international level. Standing in his way are facts to the contrary and the current opinions of American voters regarding Trump’s success in achieving any of the goals above.

Without exception, current polling reveals Trump is underwater in approval versus disapproval ratings with respect to the economy, inflation, tariffs, the war with Iran, immigration policy, foreign policy and the consequences of the One Big Beautiful Bill. His unfavorable ratings on key issues have resulted in his overall job approval rating hovering between the mid to low 30% range.

The Midterm Election will determine which party will win a majority of all 435 US House seats on the ballot and 35 Senate seats that are on the ballot with Democrats defending 13 Senate seats and Republicans defending 22 seats. The Democrats must flip at least three seats to gain a majority in the House and four seats to win control in the Senate.

History is on the side of Democrats as the party not occupying the White House ordinarily prevails in Midterm elections. Current polling also shows Democrats enjoy a generic ballot lead and a much higher level of enthusiasm or certainty to vote than Republicans. Republicans have perhaps skewed the equation with recent redistricting of US House districts and a substantial campaign funding advantage. However, Republicans have had to lessen their majorities in some districts to create new majority districts thus their margin for error is less in all districts impacted. In addition, more funding is not always the key to success in elections particularly if the opposition at least enjoys adequate funding.

On January 1, 2026, Democrats were thought to have a good opportunity of capturing the US House but very little chance of winning majority control of the Senate. Now, largely because of Trump’s low job approval rating on the economy, gas prices, farm policies, Iran War, trade policies and immigration policy, Democrats are thought to have an opportunity to capture both the House and Senate.

The Cook Political Report which leads all other analysts in assessing US House races currently identifies 209 US House seats as solid, likely or leaning Republican and 205 US House seats as solid, likely or leaning Democratic. Because of partisan US House District Gerrymandering, just 21 of the 435 House seats are included in the tossup category with 5 of those seats currently held by a Democrat and 16 of those seats currently held by a Republican. The likelihood of 25 to 30 seats changing parties is within reason and a flip of three or more is certainly possible.

The Senate picture is much different than the House. Of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot, nine seats are currently thought to be in play.

Republican incumbents in Ohio, Maine and Alaska are in tight races and Republicans are facing stiff competition in attempting to hold open seats in North Carolina, Iowa and Texas. Democrats are optimistic about protecting a Georgia Democratic Senate seat, but they are facing some unanticipated challenges in protecting open seats in Michigan and New Hampshire because of candidate related controversies. Time will tell how much Trump’s decision to make the Midterm Election about him will impact the results. As I write, we await a decision of the US Supreme Court regarding Trump’s effort to interfere with voting by mail.

If Republicans prevail in 2026, Trump will enjoy a green light to continue his current policies unabated by an obedient Republican Congress. A Democratic victory will result in substantial restraints being imposed on Trump’s last two years of office including his power to appoint executive and judicial officials.

Multiple investigations into his profit making, the Epstein Files and executive actions during the first two years of his current term are certain to occur with Democrats in control. It is clear why Trump has decided to make the election about him.