Governor hopefuls fill their lanes at debate

I watched the Republican Gubernatorial Candidates Primary Election Debate hosted by SDPB and SD News Watch on Monday evening April 13. The two debate sponsors deserve a word of praise for the professional way the debate was conducted. An array of ten issues challenging South Dakota was included in the questions asked the four candidates and the debate hosts ensured each candidate was treated fairly. Perhaps just as important, the sponsors encouraged and received civility in the candidate’s responses and exchanges.

I suspect much of the viewing audience were Republicans who plan to vote in the closed Republican primary on June 2. The challenge facing each of the four candidates was to convince partisan Republican voters that he deserved their support over the other three. As such, each candidate sought to carve out his special place in the Republican field.

Aberdeen successful businessman Toby Doeden presented himself as the Republican Party’s outsider populist in an effort to emulate President Trump’s 2016 campaign.

State House of Representatives Speaker Jon Hansen embraced his position as a voice for Christian conservatives. Incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden emphasized his experience as governor and the results achieved in the two legislatives sessions held since becoming governor. Finally, U.S. House Rep. Dusty Johnson noted his success in working across the aisle as a moderate Republican.

Identifying political debate winners is complicated because some will judge the quality of responses to the many questions and others will judge the optics of the debate. If one considered only the optics of the debate, House Speaker Jon Hansen stood out in my mind while Governor Rhoden appeared to be uncomfortable during the evening. I will leave it up to my Republican friends to judge the quality of the responses to the excellent array of questions.

The GOP gubernatorial primary election is shaping up as one of the more closely contested in recent times. A candidate must receive at least 35% of the votes cast in the race to advance to the November 3 General Election. If no candidate crosses the 35% threshold, a Tuesday, July 28 runoff election will be held between the top two candidates. Neutral polling to date reveals that no candidate has reached the 35% needed. A March 7-9, 2026, KELO sponsored poll of likely GOP primary voters conducted by Emerson College has Johnson at 28%, Doeden at 18%, Rhoden at 17% and Hansen at 14% with 23% undecided.

The plus or minus margin of error in the Emerson poll places Doeden, Rhoden and Hansen in a tight race.

While Johnson enjoys the lead, there may be cause for concern in the campaign. In an October 2015 poll conducted by Mason Dixon polling on behalf of The Chiesman Foundation, Johnson also polled 28% thus showing no gains over a five-month period. During those same five months, Rhoden’s support appeared to decline from 27% in October 2025 to 17% in March 2026, while Doeden increased from 4% to 18% and Hansen’s support increased from 2% to 14%. Looking back farther, in an early 2025 Mason Dixon poll Attorney General Marty Jackley polled at 18% and Johnson again was near the 28 percent level of support.

Johnson did not appear to gain support when Jackley chose to run for the US House while the other candidates have gained support. The 23% undecided vote could break big for Johnson and get him over the threshold, or it could be more evenly distributed among the candidates leading to a runoff.

Left out of all this is S.D. Democratic Party Executive Director Dan Ahlers who is the sole Democratic Party candidate for the SD governor’s seat.

While the absence of a primary may be good for campaign financing, uncontested candidates receive little or no attention during the primary season thus making gains in name recognition and communicating policy positions difficult. Odds makers have the SD governor’s race as safe Republican.

Factors that might make it a close race include the tarnished image of former Republican Governor Kristy Noem and the declining approval rating of Republican President Trump and the Republican controlled US House and Senate The speculation that it will be a good election year for Democrats might reach as far as South Dakota.